01

Write observable conditions

Good confirmation can be seen and checked: a close beyond a level, a rejection followed by acceptance, or a structural change. Avoid conditions that change with emotion.

02

Confirmation has a cost

Waiting usually means a later price and sometimes a missed move. That cost is exchanged for additional evidence; it does not remove uncertainty.

03

Include expiry and invalidation

A setup should not remain actionable forever. State what cancels it, when it expires and whether a second attempt is allowed.